ryan's home state of wisconsin. 51-43. a new quinnipiac/"new york times"/cbs news swing state poll shows president obama leading in ohio with likely voters 50% to 45%. a tighter race in virginia. president obama in 49%. mitt romney at 47% which is a statistical tie within the poll's 3% margin of error. and in florida that poll has president obama at 48% and mitt romney at 47%. another statistical tie. tonight, nate silver of "the new york times" 538 blog forecasts on november 6th president obama will win 300 electoral college votes. and mitt romney will win 238. and president obama's chance of re-election ticked up tonight in nate silver's calculations to 78.4%. and finally, george w. bush has entered the presidential campaign. he did that today when he was dragged into it by his little brother in florida. >> do you honestly think that this president is capable of bringing people together? his entire strategy is to blame others. starting with my brother, of course. basically, he blames every possible thing, rather than hav